Will Bitcoin hit $170,000 in three months? Analyst: We do not rule out a new round of bull market in 2026

Bitcoin entered a retracement after hitting a record high of $126,000, and market sentiment turned conservative; however, many analysts pointed out that based on historical cycles and institutional capital trends, the possibility of a new round of bullishness in Bitcoin in 2026 has not been ruled out.
(Preliminary summary: The Bitcoin super cycle is gone? Fidelity warns: 2026 may be a cold winter, supporting 65,000-75,000 magnesium)
(Background supplement: Bitcoin continues to fall through 85,000 U.S. dollars! The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates today, pay attention to arbitrage liquidation and then sell-offs)

Contents of this article

Bitcoin has surged to the top since October this year. After reaching all-time highs above $126,000, market momentum gradually cooled and prices subsequently embarked on a significant retracement. After weeks of corrections, Bitcoin is currently consolidating in the range of $85,000 to $90,000. However, the overall market sentiment is still conservative, and investors are obviously divided on the future direction.

However, the cryptocurrency media "Decrypt" recently compiled the opinions of many analysts and pointed out that although it may still be volatile in the short term, judging from historical data and fundamental conditions, the possibility of a new round of bull market in Bitcoin in 2026 has not been ruled out.

RSI has entered the oversold zone, and historical experience is biased towards the long side

Analysts pointed out that during the retracement process of this wave, Bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI) once fell below 30, entering the "oversold" range as traditionally defined. Julien Bittel, director of macro research at Global Macro Investor, said that similar situations have occurred five times since 2023, and each time, Bitcoin prices eventually rebounded.

Bittel believes that if historical trends repeat themselves, Bitcoin will not rule out the possibility of challenging $170,000 in the next three months. He also pointed out that the premise of this judgment is that the market no longer completely follows the logic of the past "four-year halving cycle".

However, not all analysts are highly optimistic about the price deduction. Bitunix analyst Dean Chen pointed out that when RSI enters the oversold zone, it usually represents panic selling and deleveraging in the market. The subsequent price is indeed easy to stabilize and rebound, but this does not mean that it will definitely copy the same rising path in the past.

Chen emphasized that to support Bitcoin's continued sharp rise, it is still necessary to observe the overall macro liquidity, monetary policy direction, and changes in risk appetite in the global market. A single technical indicator is not enough to form a basis for prediction.

Institutional funds have become medium and long-term support

In addition, fundamental factors are also regarded as potential supporting forces. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, pointed out that the recent market weakness is mainly due to short-term factors, including investors selling in advance in response to cycle expectations and the aftermath of previous leverage liquidation events. He believes these pressures will eventually subside.

More importantly, the pace of entry of institutional funds is still accelerating. Hougan described the development of Bitcoin spot ETFs as "extremely bullish" and that large financial institutions and brokerage systems have been able to directly allocate related products, which may make 2026 a critical year for capital inflows into the crypto market.

Short-term shocks are inevitable, and the long-term structure is still evolving

Overall, Bitcoin has entered a correction after hitting a record high, and may still face fluctuations and repeated tests in the short term. However, no matter from the perspective of historical cycles, technical indicators, or institutional adoption and ETF development, there is no clear signal that the market is structurally bearish.

Analysts generally believe that instead of expecting to quickly replicate the surge in the past, investors should pay more attention to whether Bitcoin is gradually moving towards a mature stage driven by its own fundamentals and where volatility gradually converges. Whether 2026 will become the next key turning point remains to be verified by time and the market.