Arthur Hayes: The copycat season has already arrived, but you don’t admit it. HYPE and SOL are the irrefutable proof.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes breaks through the new normal of the market in 2025: ETF fund stickiness breaks the old rotation rules, and the altcoin season is still there, but it only belongs to a small number of high-quality assets.
(Preliminary summary: Arthur Hayes warned that Monad may plummet 99%: a VC coin with high valuation and low circulation)
(Background supplement: Monad is officially launched! $MON opening currency price performance, token economics, Coinbase public sale results...all compiled)
Contents of this article
Bitcoin from 12.6 In the past two months, when US$10,000 has fluctuated and fallen, the altcoin quarter index has also continued to decline. Many retail investors are struggling with whether to sell their altcoins. In this regard, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, pointed out in the latest interview:
If you are still asking where the altcoin season is, it is because you have not bought the ones that have risen. The reason why traders don’t feel bullish is because they are still using the same old playbook from 2021 and clinging to the junk of the last cycle.
Hayes said that the standard script in the past was that BTC led the rise, ETH followed, and finally funds spilled into high-risk small coins.
However, the market conditions in 2025 completely deviate from this curve. According to on-chain transaction data, established altcoins such as XRP and ADA, which are extremely popular in 2021, still remain sideways even though Bitcoin has repeatedly hit new highs. The market situation shows that institutional funds refuse to be affected equally, and rotation rules are no longer driven solely by emotions, but are locked in a small number of targets by precise risk control models.
Spot ETFs have built high walls and funds can no longer penetrate freely
One of the most profound factors affecting the structure is the popularity of ETFs. According to research, ETFs lock funds in a regulated custody system, creating a high degree of stickiness. Profit no longer flows from exchange wallets into various Meme coins as in 2021, but stays within the fund structure and is held for a long time in a passive allocation manner.
As a result, the flow of funds has changed from "waterfall infiltration" to "point-like spraying". Only projects with clear fundamentals or the endorsement of giant whales will absorb the flow.
Selective Bull Market: The Victory of Elite Assets
Hayes believes that "the copycat season has already happened, but retail investors are not on the right team." The clearest example is the decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid (HYPE): in September this year, the price hit $60. The driving force was not the community’s call for orders, but the platform’s real fee income and large over-the-counter stockings.
Hayes believes a similar move has been seen in Solana (SOL), which has pushed from a low of $7 (2023 lows) to near $300, with the market revaluing the scarcity of efficient infrastructure. The common characteristics of this group of assets are verifiable cash flow, high technical threshold or deep liquidity, which is in sharp contrast to purely narrative tokens.
2026 Preview: Market logic enters the era of stock pickers
The Trump administration’s crypto-friendly policies have allowed more traditional investors to come into direct contact with crypto assets, but the gameplay has been significantly upgraded. The Bitwise report points out that future market trends will be shorter and more intense, and will focus on AI, RWA or critical infrastructure. Investors who are waiting for the old routine to repeat themselves are faced with the cruel reality: no one will support the "shattered metal".
The era of being able to double whatever you buy is officially over, and the only thing you need to accurately select is the admission ticket from 2026 onwards.
