Gemini executive: Bitcoin’s “4-year halving cycle” will not disappear! Human nature remains unchanged and continues in other forms
Will Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle become invalid in the future? Gemini executives emphasized at the Singapore Token2049 conference that "human emotions" are still the key, but the intervention of institutional funds is lengthening the cycle and reducing volatility, triggering market speculation on the timing of the next high point.
(Preliminary summary: Bitwise announced that Bitcoin’s “four-year halving market” is over, triggering controversy in the currency circle)
(Background supplement: Cango mined a total of 650.5 BTC in July; the computing power/income ratio of mining companies reached a new high after the halving )
Contents of this article
The price of Bitcoin is once again approaching a record high, but the market no longer uses the simple measurement of the rise and fall rate of the previous "four-year halving cycle".
At the Token2049 conference held in Singapore, Saad Ahmed, head of Gemini Asia Pacific, bluntly stated that the Bitcoin cycle will continue, but the driving force behind it has shifted from the halving technical event to "human emotions" that are more difficult to quantify. As Wall Street funds pour in, the traditional halving rule is undergoing a major change.
Markets are not divorced from human nature
Saad Ahmed said of market behavior patterns:
Investors get overexcited, prices overextend, then crash, then correct to equilibrium.
In his view, even if institutional funds can absorb some of Bitcoin's fluctuations, human reactions to greed and fear have not changed, and cyclicality cannot be eliminated.
The data also reminds that market sentiment is still high. Bitcoin has gained 11.5% over the past week, trading as high as around $123,850, just shy of its all-time high of $124,500 set on August 14.
Institutional funds have entered the market, and fluctuations have been "softened"
Compared with the craze in 2017 or 2021, the market structure in 2025 has undergone qualitative changes. Research points out that pension funds and large corporations currently hold about 10% to 14% of the total supply of Bitcoin and regard it as a long-term reserve asset. This wave of "strong hand effect" reduced volatility from 60% to 35%, a drop of 75%. At the same time, the derivatives market has become increasingly mature, providing hedging tools and reducing the violent pull caused by a single event.
The result is: the rhythm of ups and downs originally triggered by the halving and about once every four years has been significantly lengthened, and the trend of Bitcoin is increasingly synchronized with macro variables such as inflation and interest rates. The past story of “first correcting and then erupting after halving” did not happen after this round of halving, making the traditional model face verification.
Where is the high point? Analysts are divided into two groups
Facing the phenomenon of "cycle extension", analysts have different views. Crypto observer Rekt Capital estimates based on historical patterns that the next peak may be around 550 days after the halving, that is, October 2025; Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, agrees with some views and believes that if the United States maintains high interest rates, the peak of the cycle may not occur until 2026.
There is also a set of seasonal numbers worth paying attention to. Since 2013, Bitcoin's average return rate in the fourth quarter has been as high as 79.39%. According to CoinGlass data, whether it can continue its traditional strength at the end of this year will become an important observation point to test the "new cycle theory."
